Recession, bear market and more fun stuff
Welp the world is not going any better. Living in Canada, I've went from full "this is fine" to "stay home as much as you can" in the span of 7 days. I'm lucky enough that I can work home, so I'm very grateful for that. Take that, 2020 resolutions! Also very grateful that while my vacation plans are down the drain, I'm already in Canada now that the border is shutting down. And everything is refundable so I'm getting all of it back! I got super lucky as I usually only book the cheapest fare which are usually not refundable. In this case, it was booked on points so was cancellable by default... and COVID-19 pushed the company to make cancellation completely free.
While we're all busy trying to flatten the curve and keep health institution up and running, trying to stay healthy mentally will be my challenge. Keeping up in shape and exercising enough while walking less than a kilometer per day will take some efforts. I bought groceries online and getting them delivered. Even trying some food box service as they have a pretty big promo right now. I usually find those too expensive for what they are, not to mention the absolute waste of wrapping individual ingredients in plastic. But it's a new one, so I'll give them a chance. But only for the time of the promo, I'd rather make my own grocery shopping for more than 50% discount on the cost of the food. At least I have enough toilet paper so the general panic is not affecting me there. Seriously, how much toilet paper can one person use? I hope you're not one of them 🧻.
One thing that is not disturbing my sleep though is the stock market. If you've been following the news, you'll know that we have entered bear territory on March 11. A bear market is when the price falls down by at least 20% from its high. I could say I'm not looking, but that would be a lie as I've gotten in the bad habit of watching the price weekly-ish. So I saw the drop as it was going 📉. Also, colleagues kept talking about how trading was halted a couple of times on Slack. The important part is I have no done anything about it. I have not sold my investments. I have not taken a loan to invest on leverage (although I thought about it... I'm only human after all). I have continued to put money aside as I usually do, every month. Not more than I can afford, not less than usual. The market could go up or down in the next weeks/months, but all of this is of no importance right now as I'm not retired yet. It's all noise. And despite what all the financial analyst are telling you, no one knows what's gonna happen.
It's not yet a recession, but it seems likely that one could happen. This could stretch this bear market a little longer. What does that mean for your investments? Nothing of course. Ignore it. If you have a crystal ball, stop reading this blog and go win the lottery already. If you're like 99% of us, you'll have as much chance of accurately predicting the future of the economy as my cat would. And as awesome as she is, she's not a financial oracle. Note: not my cat but still ♥️.
If you're freaking out, it's a sign that you're:
Consuming too much news
Have a bad portfolio mix (too much risk for your appetite)
Just retired
I'm truly sorry if you're in #3, I hope you have a plan B. Timing is not the best, but if you've made it this far I have faith in your ability to overcome this challenge. For the other 2, you have the power to make a change. Just do it.